In TIME, Mujtaba Rahman argues that any U.S. attempt to annex Greenland in 2026 would fundamentally end the transatlantic relationship as Europe understands it, rendering Europe’s long-standing strategy of keeping the U.S. “invested” in NATO obsolete. Unlike past tensions, Greenland would mark a qualitative break: the United States would no longer be seen as an unreliable ally, but as a predatory power willing to exploit Europe’s weakness.
Rahman, the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, situates the Greenland crisis within a broader pattern of Trump-era policy: support for far-right movements in Europe, pressure on Ukraine to concede territory, openness to re-normalizing relations with Russia, and the use of tariffs and security threats to coerce allies. Europe’s inability to respond forcefully, Rahman argues, stems from its continued military dependence on the U.S., which will persist for several years despite accelerated rearmament.
Greenland, in this framework, becomes the breaking point. Annexation would expose the illusion that the alliance still rests on shared values or mutual restraint. Even if U.S. officials frame their ambitions in terms of Arctic security, missile defense, or countering China and Russia, Rahman suggests the deeper issue is Washington’s willingness to override allied sovereignty when it calculates that Europe has no credible means of resistance.
The annexation of Greenland would shatter the illusion that America remains a friend, Rahman writes in his op-ed published by Time on 7 January 2026.
